DTN Market Commentary
DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/05 10:56
10/5/2022 - 11:27:00
DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/05 10:56 Corn, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday; Soybeans Lower Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 10 to 12 cents lower; wheat futures are 8 to 12 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 10 to 12 cents lower; wheat futures are 8 to 12 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is weaker with the DOW down 250 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 150 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up 1.45 and natural gas is up .07. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are weaker with gold down 12.00. CORN: Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with choppy action continuing as the stronger dollar and harvest pressure limit the early buying seen overnight but buying continued to show up on weakness. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with warmer-than-normal temps over the next couple of weeks to keep harvest moving along into midmonth. The export wire will need to show more life soon with nothing in recent days and river issues remaining notable for shipping. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with softer driving demand and refinery disruptions to keep upside limited for now. The weekly ethanol report showed production rising by 34,000 barrels per day (bpd), with stocks 1.006 million barrels lower. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing everywhere and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest with notable strength already while intra-month spreads remain off the highs as shipping issues will limit the export market. On the December chart, trade is just above the 20-day moving average at $6.79 with the recent high at $6.95 above that with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.63 as further support. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 10 to 12 cents lower at midday with trade seeing selling return after the firmer start to the week with demand and export concerns and harvest pressure still at the forefront. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower and oil is 25 to 35 points higher. Early planting is underway in South America with late demand picking up ahead of the U.S. export window. The dollar started the week fading to hold with Brazil in better shape to start than Argentina early on with varied short-term rain potential. Basis will continue to shift toward harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month with some further near-term basis pressure expected into October along with intramonth spread weakness adding carry in recent days along with significant cash carry in some river areas. The daily export wire was quiet again after the small sale to start the week. On the November soybean chart, trade has the 20-day moving average at $14.27 as resistance well above the market, with the lower Bollinger band at $13.50 as support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 8 to 12 cents higher at midday with trade fading a little more off the recent highs with another test of $10.09 on KC this morning before fading again, with buying support showing up again on early weakness. The Plains look dry short term, but enough recent rains fell in some areas to keep planting moving forward short term. MATIF wheat remains near the upper end of the range with choppy action to start the week working just off the highs as well. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day moving average at $9.51, and the fresh high at $10.09 as resistance, which we tested again Wednesday morning. David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
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