Grain Tidbits - July 12, 2018

2:15 PM 7/12/2018

The USDA report issued this morning (Thursday) at 11:00 was the first for USDA to assess the impact of the trade war. USDA predicts we will have strong corn and soybean exports to close out this marketing year, which ends August 31. Corn exports should remain strong going forward to next year, but soybeans are expected to be shorter once South America begins harvesting their next crop. Ending stocks are making the margin for error very small for corn, not so for soybeans. Wheat stocks continue to shrink because of the weather conditions around the world's growing areas.

The report showed old crop stocks of US corn down 75 mbu from last month at 2.027 billion bu, a surprise cut caused by bigger exports. New crop stocks were reduced 25 mbu to 1.577 billion bu. The 2018/19 production was up 190 million bu on larger acreage but that was partially offset by increased demand. The USDA report also showed a 1.5 MMT reduction to Brazil production at 83.5 MMT. That helped to drop 17/18 world ending stocks to 191.73 MMT. New crop world stocks are projected at 151.96 MMT, down 2.73 from June’s report.  

On soybeans, USDA cut 40 mbu from 17/18 US ending stocks to 465 mbu. New crop stocks were raised 195 mbu to 580 mbu, as production was up 40 mbu to 4.32 bbu. Exports were down 250 million bu on assumed lost shipments to China. Crush use was increased. World ending stocks for old crop beans were up 3.53 to 96.02 MMT, with Brazil up 0.5 to 119.5 MMT. New crop stocks were up 11.25 MMT to 98.27 MMT.  

The report indicated that all wheat production is projected at 1.881 bbu, up 53 mbu. As expected the majority of the jump was from spring wheat, at 613.97 mbu.   

Have a great weekend,
Jim