Grain Tidbits - September 7, 2018

11:02 AM 9/7/2018

The trade comment period on the additional $200 billion of tariffs on Chinese products has passed, which means these tariffs could be implemented today.  There is talk of progress between the US and Canada on restructuring NAFTA.  Dairy is the sticking point.  

Reports of up to 10 inches of rain in the eastern Corn Belt has traders paying attention. Central Illinois, central Indiana, and Ohio are in the path of the biggest totals.

African Swine Fever is now well-established within China, causing pork prices to surge higher in high population centers in the southern region. China has blocked the transportation of hogs, preventing the ability of hogs to be sent from production areas in the north getting to southern areas where the slaughter plants are located.   

Wheat continues to lose ground, due to Russia remaining adamant that wheat exports will continue.  Also weighing on the wheat market is news out of Canada: They are not going to be running out of wheat anytime soon.  Reported Canadian wheat stock as of July 31st were 6.2 million tonnes, in line with expectations.  

Private forecasters have come out with their estimates this week for corn and soybean production.  Informa estimates US corn yield at 178 bu. per acre, which is the highest estimate so far from the private analysts.  Corn yield estimates so far range from 177.3 (ProFarmer), to 178.8 (Informa).  Informa estimates that USDA will report soybean yield to be 52.9 bu. per acre in their report next week.  Of all private forecasters so far, this is on the lower end of the range. The range is 52.2 (Allendale) to 53.8 (FC Stone).  These numbers are within trade estimates.     

Thanks for your patronage.

Jim Gallagher

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