Grain Tidbits - September 21, 2018

8:41 AM 9/21/2018

Wheat related news includes Russian officials have lowered their wheat harvested area by 1.7 million acres due to poor weather conditions.  Further cuts to Australian wheat are expected also due to poor weather.  The European commission's export data shows wheat exports down 41 percent from this time a year ago. This highlights the last World Supply and Demand Report which had European Union wheat exports roughly unchanged. The market consensus suggests European Union exports at least 3 million metric tons lower, Australia down 4-6 million metric tons, and Russia 5 million metric tons.  This is a lot of exports that need to be switched to US wheat.

US corn values are competitive in the world market.  Weekly export sales were good, coming in at 1.38 million metric tons.  Corn prices have fallen to levels encouraging large demand increases.  

Soybeans rallied Thursday (Sep 20th) as the US dollar weakened, making beans more attractive to importers.  Technically this seems to be a short term correction, with the market needing more positive news to sustain any meaningful improvement.  China announced tariff reductions for non-US trading partners, which further opened non-US soybeans to be imported. According to commentary by FC Stone, there are rumors that up to 15 cargoes of soybeans will be moving toward Argentina to replace soybeans shipped to China.  

Harvest in our area has begun, with producers picking and choosing soybean fields with many fields too green as of now.  Some corn has been combined, but limited so far.  Early yields sound encouraging.

Jim Gallagher

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