Grain Tidbits - May 7, 2018

9:05 AM 5/4/2018

China, weather, and crop conditions once again are the dominating factor in our markets. Continued talk of trade wars are an everday occurence.  China is the world's top buyer and consumer of soybeans, with the bulk of them used for their huge livestock herds.  Just the threat of tariffs imposed by the United States have already cut off soybean imports from the US, and pushed up prices for other suppliers such as Brazil. China's government is trying to push for more acres of beans to be seeded to provide relief for buyers of feed.  Their plan would only increase production by an estimated 5 million bushels, or 600,000 tons.  China is expected to import 96 million tons in the 2017/2018 years versus domestic production of 14.6 million tons. 

The Kansas wheat tour estimated yield potential in the No. 1 US wheat state at 37.0 bushels per acre.  This compares with a tour average of 46.1 bushels per acre in 2017, 48.6 bushels per acre in 2016, and 35.9 bushels per acre in 2015. USDA will publish their intial estimate of the US winter wheat crop on May 10th, at 11:00 AM. As of last Sunday, only 13 percent of Kansas wheat was considered good or excellent.  This is the lowest rating in at least 20 years.

Weekly export sales were not supportive with China canceling 2 old crop cargoes.  The good news on the export side was March exports were the largest for the month in the last seven years. Corn posted good export sales on the week, which ended up to be higher than trade estimates.  Brazil's corn crop is experiencing dry conditions, and concerns are mounting there could be a drawdown in world corn supplies.

Our weather has finally turned into farming weather.  Planters are going strong.