Grain Tidbits - May 14, 2018

9:43 AM 5/11/2018

In the latest USDA Grain Supply and Demand report, which was released Thursday, reflects a fairly sharp decline in new crop corn stocks. This is due to acreage declines compared to 2017. World 2017/2018 carryout was reduced by 3 million metric tons, largely due to Brazilian production down 5 million metric tons. Global stocks are down sharply on stronger usage and reductions in China's stockpile.

Soybean carryout was reduced 20 million bushels this month, due to another 20 million bushel increase in crush. Soybean crushing is running at a record pace. Stocks are forecasted to fall 5.5 million metric tons for new crop beans, nearly 4 million metric tons below expectations.

Wheat food use rises 8 million bushels for 2017/18, but exports are predicted to be down 15 million bushels. New crop stocks are forecasted to be down 115 million bushels due to lower production estimates.

All in all, the market liked 2018/19 bean carryouts. Corn numbers were friendly but funds are still too long. Wheat numbers are still big. China is still the big question mark, with the ever present talks of a trade war hanging over the market. Global grain stocks are seeing declines, but existing fund length and trade concerns are holding back market advances.