Grain Tidbits - June 22, 2018

9:18 AM 6/22/2018

Trade disputes remain the driving force in the markets. Soybeans are oversold and this morning (Friday), are currently trading higher by as much as 12 cents. Beans have closed lower 17 out of the last 20 trading days.  It is my understanding that Brazilian soybean offers are about $40 per metric ton higher than US Gulf offers. There are reports that China's port stocks of beans are at a record, which highlights the aggressive buying from Brazil.  China is also taking steps to relieve import documentation on other feedstuffs if soybeans are unavailable in Brazil due to high prices.  

There is not much fresh, supportive news to move things higher.  For the most part, US crops are in good shape and expected to stay that way into early July. Key wheat growing areas of Eastern Australia are expected to remain dry.
There is a story out from Reuters on China's wheat production which lent support to wheat.  As much as 20% of China's wheat production is at risk, due to recent weather developments. Hard Red Winter Wheat yields are reported to be running better than expected by 10 to 15 bushels per acre in Kansas.

Brazil relies very little on rail for grain movement, which leaves the majority of it dependent on truck freight.  There is a truckers strike that has disrupted this grain movement, leaving stocks of beans and soy meal low at Brazilian ports.  As of now the issue remains unresolved.  This does not bode well for China trying to originate all of its soybeans from Brazil. Brazilian prices are high due to this and non-China business is getting diverted to the US.