Grain Tidbits - July 5, 2018

8:04 AM 7/5/2018

The June 29th USDA crop report came in within the range of pre-report estimates and relatively free of surprises. Corn saw both acres and quarterly stocks come in higher than estimates. USDA estimated 89.1 million acres were planted.  Thats up just under a million acres from their March estimate. Many agreed that a 90 million plus number would cause further declines to prices.  

On the stocks side, corn came in 30 million bushels higher than estimates indicating that feed usage was likely lower than thought.  On farm supplies are 2.75 billion bushels, down 90 million bushels from last year, with commercial holdings up 170 million bushels.  States with stock reductions were Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota.  States with stock increases were Illinois, Minnesota, and Ohio.

Soybean acres came in at 89.6 million acres, up 620,000 from the March report.  This would be only the second time in history soybean acres out-pace corn acres.  Biggest increases were in Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky, with reductions in Missouri, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Kansas. Soybean stocks came in line with estimates at 1.22 billion bushels.  The majority of stocks are in commercial warehouses, with their holdings up 211 million bushels from a year ago. Farm stocks are up 44.5 million bushels.

All wheat acres came in 700,000 bu above estimates with most of that coming from increased spring wheat acres. However supportive reports coming out of Canada on planted acres, and the reduction of the French crop, wheat prices are being firmer.

USDA has overestimated acres in June versus the actual final acres planted 16 out of 20 years in corn, and 13 of the last 20 in soybeans. This, plus the fact crop conditions generally have a tendency to slip as time goes on.

We now return to trading weather and tariff news.  Much of the nations corn is ready to pollinate and weather bears watching.  With the holiday falling in midweek, makes for thin trading.  We could see volatile market moves depending on headlines and updated forecasts.